I always hear people talking about point spreads when betting on NFL games, but I’m still a bit lost on how they actually work. I get that it’s different from a moneyline, but the whole idea of a team winning but still “not covering” is confusing. For example, if a favorite wins the game, how can someone still lose their bet? Could someone explain this in a simple way, maybe with a real example of a spread line?
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What makes spreads interesting is how many factors go into setting them. Oddsmakers look at things like team point differential, injuries, or even weather before a line is made. That’s why you’ll sometimes see a home team automatically given around three points — it’s baked into the spread because the crowd and conditions really do matter. It turns betting into more of a puzzle than just picking which side wins outright.
The key with spreads is that the favorite doesn’t just need to win, they need to win by the number set. Say the Bills are listed at -6 against the Broncos — if they only win by 3 or 4 points, bettors on the Bills actually lose, even though the scoreboard says they won. On the other hand, backing the Broncos would cash because they stayed within the margin. That’s exactly how sportsbooks “level the playing field,” and it’s explained here: https://thelivenagpur.com/2025/07/19/nfl-betting-strategy-what-you-need-to-know-about-point-spreads/. Once you see it that way, it’s clear spreads are more about margins than simply picking winners.