At the end of the year, I saw a lot of "trends", why are we still unable to keep up with the trends? Is the "trend" itself not worth predicting? Or are people who talk about "trends" all liars? At the end of the year, our circle of friends is always swiped by many "trend" articles. It is estimated that you must have seen these familiar articles:Top ten keywords in marketing circles in 2019 6 major trends in creative advertising in 2020 Five business trends for 2020 Catch the black swans and grey rhinos of 2020 ... Including myself, I have written about 2020,
"Integrated Marketing" has passed away, and the "Link Era" is coming, not to mention Wu Xiaobo's "Wu Xiaobo Year-end Show", Luo Zhenyu's "Friends of Time", and Zhang Xiaolong's "WeChat Year-end Summary", And year-end job title email list summaries of various well-known and unknown financial scholars and business scammers. Human beings are always deeply anxious about "uncertainty", and we always hope to clear the fog of the future and look further than others. Especially at the end of the year, this kind of good wishes seems to be more turbulent.
But after reading business forecasts for several years in a row, I couldn't help but think about a question: I saw a lot of "trends" at the end of the year, why are we still unable to keep up with the trends? Is the "trend" itself not worth predicting? Or are people who talk about "trends" all liars? Obviously, the problem is not with the "trend" itself, but with ourselves. At the end of the year, this article should provide you with an auxiliary tool when you watch the big coffee talk, and the article will talk about a question: how do we correctly understand and grasp the "trend"? Today, I want to talk about a few characteristics of the trend, which are:Trends are inherent;
Trends are adaptive; Trends are cyclical; Trends are lagging. 1. Trends are inherent – is that a trend, or a phenomenon? After reading a lot of "trend" articles and watching a lot of "trend" speeches, I found that what many authors gave was not a trend at all, but a phenomenon. One of the misunderstandings: trend = hot spot The trend that many people think is actually the most exciting thing last year, and the real trend is often hidden behind the excitement. For example, at the end of 2019, many mindless authors will sell hot words such as "social e-commerce", "content planting", "Taobao live broadcast", "private domain traffic" and "sinking market" as trends to sell to readers .
But does the lively last year mean that it will be lively next year? Lively is lively, has everyone really benefited from the lively? I think the trend is sometimes very similar to the stock market. When the market aunt knows that buying China Ping An can make a profit without losing money, even if this is a trend, it will be regarded as a joke by the rabble. Misunderstanding No. 2: Trend = What you don't know This kind of interpretation often happens to experts with some qualifications. They often tell you some business cognitions that you think are correct but are actually wrong, and business phenomena that you don’t understand but are already popular.
for example: You think that Mobike has become the industry leader after kicking OFO. In fact, after it was acquired by Meituan, it lost more than 300 million per month, which is Meituan's biggest financial tumor;You think that social e-commerce in 2019 is the trend of new retail in the future. In fact, Yunji, the largest social e-commerce company, has seen a decline in revenue in the third quarter of this year, and there are many social e-commerce platforms running away;White-collar workers in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou think HEYTEA is the leader of Chinese milk tea shops, but Michelle Ice City, which grows in the second and third tiers, has more than 7,000 stores across the country, and it is the giant of milk tea shops. Since ancient times, all good businesses have made money from "poor knowledge", but not all "poor knowledge" is worth paying for.
Let's not be frightened by the novelty and the unknown. Not all subcultures will become mainstream cultures, and not all cognitive blind spots will become our soft spots. The key is for us to make a reasonable judgment: whether those "things you don't know" may become "things everyone knows" in the future. Trends are "internal". Whether it is a hot spot that everyone is chasing, or those hidden cognitions, these are not trends, they are just superficial phenomena. The real trend is not to say what this thing is, but to say what this thing will change. For example, marketing intelligence is an important phenomenon in 2019.
This is because Tencent, ByteDance, Ali and other media, the intelligence level of their advertising platforms are developing rapidly. In the past, when we did ad optimization, we relied on the experience of operators to adjust bids and revise targeting labels. But in the past two years, with the popularization of oCPX (the intelligent bidding and optimization method of media advertising platform), enterprises have been able to hand over most of the operational work to machines to complete by themselves. With the advancement of algorithm technology, marketing in the future will be like a camera. Humans can surpass the previous operation experts as long as they operate "fool-like".
Just imagine, what trends will this phenomenon of "marketing intelligence" on media platforms lead to? 1) Occupations such as advertising operations and optimizers will also face a wave of layoffs; 2) The focus of effective advertising operations will fall on the creativity of advertising content, because this is the only part that machines cannot replace humans in a short period of time. 3) The competition between effect advertising agencies will fall on the creativity of content materials and the operation of cash flow. Because there is no need for a large number of people to do basic operations, Party A can pay more attention to price when choosing an agent; because it pays more attention to content materials, the agent should build a more professional and larger material production team.